The heart of the old CSA votes . . .in a GOP primary. Weird world. My great-great-uncle was mustered out of the Union army in Northern Alabama having fought for Mr. Lincoln. We haven’t been back since.
Here is the situation as I see it:
Romney has been the only national candidate, but cannot win in the base Southern states. That is a sign of weakness. He needs a win tonight . . . though in a four way race a win will not finish things off. A sweep will eliminate the bottom candidate not named Ron Paul.
Romney is the youngest looking sixty-five year old in America.
Santorum could use a sweep as he is looking more and more the spoiler.
Gingrich has a Southern strategy which means these two races are close to must wins.
Newt defeated Rick in a forum by most accounts, but he needs a win outside of Georgia.
Three facts:
1. Republicans changed their primary line up to make the process continue. That was supposed to strengthen the Party, but this plan certainly backfired. It has made Romney look weaker than he is . . . and prevented winnowing the field to a two person race.
2. The GOP Party is the amongst the most conservative two Southern states tonight, but Mississippi is more promising to Romney.
3. The number of Christian GOP voters is not 100%, but might as well be.
Don’t forget that tonight’s other primaries are in states where Mormons are influential.
Mississippi has an urban and upscale voting block.
The last week has shown each candidates strengths and weaknesses:
Romney was goofy, but fun with Foxworthy. He ran not to lose, a bit dull.
Newt had a plan on gas and was disciplined, but struggled with being ignored.
Santorum ignited base passion (google Game On . . . the awesome video), but alienated a big chunk of independents.
National polling is straightforward. The President is in big trouble. If the GOP comes home, he will lose. Ignore the spin. Incumbents are the issue and a bare majority would prefer someone new.
The President won by six-seven points. He will do no better. He will almost surely do worse. The question is how much worse.
He might win a close election. He might lose badly. He will not win by much.
Fox coverage of this race reminds me of why I got rid of cable. Boring. Discussion of things that nobody cares to know by people nobody would want to know.
Tim Tebow is the man . . .
He helps a vet. That is a good man.
I hate the tendency for the media to stereotype the South.
They mock, they belittle, they stereotype. When polled, I believe Southern folk tell the media what they don’t want to hear just to tweak them. I have no sympathy with much of the Old South . . . but the arrogance and condescension of the North to the South makes me wretch. West Virginia was Union . . . and yet we get the same treatment so don’t tell me it is all Civil War hold over.
As a boy having a Southern accent made people laugh . . . and I was told I was “culturally deprived.”
Yes . . . blue grass, quilting, white churches against green mountains . . . handmade furniture and a house my grandfather built. So deprived when I could go to New York and buy stuff at Kmart.
Why do I care if liberals say vile things? Does that not make conservatives better? I’m tired of all the back and forth.
I am a conservative, but I know that people on both sides say stupid things. I will not blame atheists for Stalin and Bill Mahr, if they will not blame me for TBN or the Inquisition.
Two wrongs no more make a right . . . though two Wrights do make an airplane.
Theory: only a few million listen to talk radio. I think radio numbers are drastically inflated. I cannot get good numbers.
Pat Buchanan has problems, but he has more knowledge in one eye brow than Hannity has in his whole body.
Bill Maher has the same relationship to intellectuals as Andrew Sullivan has to Sarah Palin’s womb: fascinated interest but no personal experience and a great deal of misunderstanding.
Newt has gotten Obama riled on gas.
Alabama GOP has hired Greek workers to count ballots.
Here is a historic change. When I was a boy, the cities came in first, then country. Now it is reversed . . . why?
Why doesn’t FOX report on the election? They are talking about . . . blah, blah, blah. Eyes glaze over.
Thought: somebody should produce a show when people say unpredictable things. I am not going to vote for Obama, but too much of this and I will grow sympathetic.
Mississippi is going badly for Romney, but it is hard to tell where the returns are from. Why? The Cable news folks are repeating the same things they said last week about gas prices and other nonsense.
Romney comes in third in both states . . . and he has a major problem.
Newt is going to Tampa. Why not? Brokered convention is a possibility if Romney comes third . . .
If Romney comes in third, this is the first time I would believe in a brokered convention . . . I think it still unlikely, but there is no way to spin third. Third in deep red states . . . bad.
It occurs to me that if Rick Perry had not been arrogant, he would be winning. He mailed it in . . . or is actually an idiot. . . and so he failed, but he was the natural candidate.
Newt running ahead of polls. It is hard not to say: either Newt or Rick should drop out.
Who? Newt has the resume, but huge baggage. Rick has his Google problem and is flat speaker. If Santorum sweeps in the deep South, then he is serious . . . but I still don’t see how he gets the delegates.
If Romney wins the most delegates, due to Samoa and Hawaii and proportional representation in the South, but loses both states . . . that is still bad news. Like kissing your cousin, a close third has potential, but it cannot go anyplace.
Santorum is sure to win Alabama. A Catholic from Pennsylvania wins Alabama. Back in the day . . . that would have been a big deal. I think it still is. I credit the “Game On” style volunteer campaign.
Attacking Rick Santorum on Planned Parenthood by Romney is stupid. Here is what I know: Rick Santorum is pro-life.
Gingrich has adopted the William Jennings Bryan plan. He will deny a majority to Romney and then stampede the Convention with a speech. Could it work? Sure . . . if we get a brokered convention. Will we?
No.
But tonight is the first time I thought it possible. . .
The governor of Alabama is a fine fellow. Fox has now called Alabama for Santorum. I thought the governor of Alabama seemed like a thoughtful guy . . . he looked like he has some mischief in him.
This is a bad night for Romney and Gingrich. No way around it.
Santorum is the big winner tonight.
